in 10 years cloud computing will have replaced cg artists.

Originally Posted by Moosey_G

I think this comic illustrates some of what I'm talking about, even though it's about a different subject.

You're right, that comic isn't making the point you are trying to make at all. And your point doesn't have much evidence to support it... technology moves quite fast. It takes only about 5 years for things to change very significantly in the technology world.

Andreas, regardless of the fact that computing will be dazzlingly different from how it is now in 20 years (which is a given) we can make some pretty sound predictions of what it will NOT be.

Cloud computing is practical, and it will not result in a net loss of jobs, I don't think -- all of those server still need parts, and maintenance, and engineering, and all of the money companies save on IT will go other places. Who lays all the cables that will be needed to network the entire world fast enough for cloud computing to be cost effective vs local computing? Do you have any idea how many people actually need to be connected? How many parts need to be produced for this infrastructure to be developed? I personally believe cloud computing is coming, because it's a safe, logical bet -- it's a cost effective, practical use of resources. But it's going to use an otherworldly amount of resources to make it happen across the entire world. There will be work for a long time. Roles can be rendered obsolete, but the laws of scarcity remain. Everyone will always need things they dont have.

As an side: the singularity is hogwash, unless we start tapping into type 2 level power. -- which, even if we undergo a science fiction style technological renaissance tomorrow, is going to require years and years of travel and infrastructure development. It expects emulation of the human mind, which is an absolutely absurd notion. Truly abstracting all human life onto hardware is many, many, many many many MANY orders of magnitude more expensive in terms of computing (and consequently, space and energy) than running a server farm.

Originally Posted by Moosey_G

Now, consoles are one thing, mainly because all they do is provide limited services built on often unstable hardware;

How are consoles built on unstable hardware? Every user has the same hardware so you can tailor your game to the exact specification to ensure a consistent experience for every user and a reliable platform for the developer to squeeze.
When making games for desktops you have to factor in many kinds of software and hardware set up.

Maybe I am misunderstanding you?

Re: cloud computing in general: not sure if I really want it to happen but in terms of hardware it would be kind of good, the server side box gets upgraded as new tech arrives so the end user can always be up to date.

Yeah I was always under the impression that consoles sell at a lower price point because they are generally mid to low range proprietary hardware. Making them cheap to build and highly stable if the necessary testing/groundwork is done by the console manufacture ahead of time.