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Next generation to arrive in 2012

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polycounter lvl 17
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chrismaddox3d polycounter lvl 17
http://www.next-gen.biz/news/next-generation-arrive-2012
Ubisoft Montreal has next-gen Xbox devkits; a Sony studio has shifted focus to PS4.
The next gen starts in 2012.
Guess they don't want Nintendo to be first out of the gate this time around.
Does this mean more price cuts for current gen consoles after the holidays i wonder.

Replies

  • dempolys
    Expect games to have 4-5 years of dev time now... -_____-
  • ES_139
    saw the title and thought star trek, was very disappointed.
  • chrismaddox3d
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    chrismaddox3d polycounter lvl 17
    ES_139 wrote: »
    saw the title and thought star trek, was very disappointed.
    StarTrek The Next Generation does have a blu ray box set coming out in 2012 i saw,lol
  • PolyHertz
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    PolyHertz polycount lvl 666
    Yea there have been a lot of rumors about the next-gen consoles lately. Just because devs are starting to get early kits doesn't mean we'll see the consoles in 2012 however, so don't get your hopes up just yet.

    Also, the "10 year plan" is in reference to how long the system is sold in stores, not how long before a successor is released.
  • Autocon
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    Autocon polycounter lvl 15
    All rumors and speculation. E3 2012 will be when Microsoft or Sony announces anything if at all. Also if they are announced at E3 that gives about a 6month window from announcement to being on store shelf's, not a lot of time to build up hype/justification as why consumers should buy a new console.
  • equil
    i think it's interesting to note that crytek made a claim about the next generation coming in mid-2013 over a year ago in this powerpoint. They went as far as to claim that "The renaissance of graphics will arrive".
  • Super
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    Super polycounter lvl 18
    New consoles will launch 2013, earliest I'd wager, not next year.

    Seriously interested what things will look like though next-gen, audiences demand better looking games so devs will have to get bigger/be allowed more time but the fundamental structure needs to change also IMO.
  • eld
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    eld polycounter lvl 18
    The usual: the consoles catching up with the current pc hardware, and nintendo catching up with the last generation hardware.
  • MainManiac
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    MainManiac polycounter lvl 11
    Honestly ill bet on november 2012 as the release. A good hunk of games were finally summed up this year, has to be a reason.

    Im not buying any further consoles, money is going into a graphics card that will last me 5 years longer than a console.
  • ErichWK
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    ErichWK polycounter lvl 12
    New consoles won't come out at 2012. imo.
  • mLichy
    Yeah, I'm not sure I'd buy anther console either. It really depends on the games and if they are exclusive or not and worth it. I'm with frell on buying a good GPU that will last a long while.
  • IchII3D
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    IchII3D polycounter lvl 12
    There seems to be a new one of these every single day now, and I'm not expecting it to slow down for the next year. At the end of the day a new console will be announced the months after sales are down, which isn't happening for a while.

    In house studios of Sony and Microsoft will have undoubtedly started exploring the next big thing, conceptual discovery and possible future franchises. But they aren't going to make a game within a year.

    Its still 2013/2014 in my opinion, only reason rumours have started now is because games take so dam long to make these days and people have started thinking about it.
  • [HP]
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    [HP] polycounter lvl 13
    I doubt the nextgen consoles will be here before 2013. :)
  • PolyHertz
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    PolyHertz polycount lvl 666
    frell wrote: »
    A good hunk of games were finally summed up this year, has to be a reason.

    Because they were done perhaps? and it's not like there's a lack of upcoming games on the current consoles (Halo 4, Auras Wrath, Twisted Metal, Darksiders 2, Mass Effect 3, Bioshock Infinite, Jourey, Starhawk, Borderlands 2, Soul Calibur V, Final Fantasy XIII-2, etc.)
  • Andreas
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    Andreas polycounter lvl 11
    The next gen starts in 2012.

    Actually hasn't every indication so far been 2014? Next Unreal engine slated for around then, and just because companies are working with next gen dev kits dont mean the games are intended to be released anytime soon :thumbup:

    Arriving AT RETAIL late 2012?? Oh Edge, you noobs...
  • aajohnny
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    aajohnny polycounter lvl 13
    Working with = Figuring things out and making a game with it.... i'd say 2k13-2k14
  • Darth Tomi
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    Darth Tomi polycounter lvl 12
    2016 at the earliest. Probably be Microsoft with Xbox 720 and it'll be glitchy as heck.
    MAYBE by then the economy might start turning around and a few people will be able to afford the $700 price tag. Thfffpt :P
  • Xoliul
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    Xoliul polycounter lvl 14
    frell wrote: »
    Honestly ill bet on november 2012 as the release. A good hunk of games were finally summed up this year, has to be a reason.

    Im not buying any further consoles, money is going into a graphics card that will last me 5 years longer than a console.

    What? I've had 3 really badass graphics cards during the period I owned one single 360, and probably like .. 4 computers during the entire xbox 360 lifetime so far!

    edit: I spent almost 10 times as much on pc hardware as I did on that one console during the same period!
  • mLichy
    Xoliul wrote: »
    What? I've had 3 really badass graphics cards during the period I owned one single 360, and probably like .. 4 computers during the entire xbox 360 lifetime so far!

    edit: I spent almost 10 times as much on pc hardware as I did on that one console during the same period!


    Well you don't HAVE to buy a new card so often, but ya, PC will def. cost you a hell of alot more. I got a nice GPU 3 years ago or so, then got a GTX570 recently, and this is good enough for me for a while. But like you said, I'd prob end up getting another GPU in 2-3 years, overall costing as much as like 3 360s.
  • Jeff Parrott
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    Jeff Parrott polycounter lvl 19
    My bank account is not yet ready for a new round of consoles.
  • jimmypopali
    Would the Wii-U be considered 'next-gen' for Nintendo (as compared to the Wii)?
    I wonder what the selling points would be, other than processing power?
  • dpaynter26
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    dpaynter26 polycounter lvl 11
    frell wrote: »
    Honestly ill bet on november 2012 as the release. A good hunk of games were finally summed up this year, has to be a reason.

    Im not buying any further consoles, money is going into a graphics card that will last me 5 years longer than a console.

    halo 4 is for 360 i highly doubt we'll see the new console till atleast late 2013 if not later
  • Irreal
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    Irreal polycounter lvl 10
    dempolys wrote: »
    Expect games to have 4-5 years of dev time now... -_____-

    Expect absolutely nothing to change for dev time.
  • Andreas
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    Andreas polycounter lvl 11
    Darth Tomi wrote: »
    2016 at the earliest. Probably be Microsoft with Xbox 720 and it'll be glitchy as heck.
    MAYBE by then the economy might start turning around and a few people will be able to afford the $700 price tag. Thfffpt :P

    Oh god, my head...
  • MainManiac
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    MainManiac polycounter lvl 11
    Xoliul wrote: »
    What? I've had 3 really badass graphics cards during the period I owned one single 360, and probably like .. 4 computers during the entire xbox 360 lifetime so far!

    edit: I spent almost 10 times as much on pc hardware as I did on that one console during the same period!

    A $300 xbox < $300 top graphics card at the time.

    You will be able to play all released games at > xbox quality, but alot of the pc versions throw in extra features and they tend to make you feel like you aren't "maxing" it.
  • Kwramm
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    Kwramm interpolator
    doing 3D I have to have a good video card anyway, so it's not really an argument for me that a console is cheaper. Actually being able to play games is just a nice side effect of having a nice rig at home that works well for 3D.
    Although I do miss out on some of the PS3 games...ah well, too much work anyway, don't have time any more to play lots of games...and then there's Skyrim :)
  • Brendan
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    Brendan polycounter lvl 8
    Microsoft I can see starting to get edgy about a new console. Nintendo obviously have unveiled the WiiU to confused audiences earlier this year, because the Wii was starting to stagnate. The XBOX has been sorta slowly stagnating (relying almost completely on multiplats as none of the first party games did outstandingly). Kinekt was a good idea, but it works better for animators than it does for gamers!

    Maybe with Halo 4 coming out and if Activision decides to play nice with online (doubt it though), they could prop up the 360 for a while.


    Sony on the other hand will be mighty confused. The PS3's been snowballing - kinda sucky at launch, but the last few years it's had a lot of the best exclusives. What do they do? They're on a roll here, surely the board members are shouting DONT TOUCH ANYTHING. Maybe they could release a year or so after the 720, but try for a significantly more powerful (and easier) setup, like an extra chunk of ram of vram or something. Lose the first year of customers and make the developers happier from then on, I dunno.
  • Autocon
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    Autocon polycounter lvl 15
    The biggest problem with going onto the new generation compared to the last one is there is honestly no HUGE visual difference between what we have this generation and next. Going from PS2 you gained pixle shaders and had the ability have things like specular/normal maps. It DRAMATICALLY changed the way games looked.

    What do you gain from the coming generation? Visually not a ton. Sure things look better but the difference between PS2 to PS3 will not be had going from PS3 to PS4. The big selling point of the PS4 generation will be tessellation. And honestly I dont see most consumers noticing a big enough difference to say hey yes I will buy another 400+ dollar console. It just dosnt add enough. Or at least thats how I see it.
  • ErichWK
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    ErichWK polycounter lvl 12
    And better AI, hopefully Direct X11 support. I think it's gonna be a lot of more under the hood stuff then graphical upgrades. It would be nice if Vertex painting became the norm.
  • Autocon
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    Autocon polycounter lvl 15
    ErichWK wrote: »
    And better AI, hopefully Direct X11 support. I think it's gonna be a lot of more under the hood stuff then graphical upgrades. It would be nice if Vertex painting became the norm.

    Vertex painting is the norm depending on what studio you work for :)

    And really its something that any studio can and should be doing to breaking up tiling. Wether its using RGB painted blend maps of Black to White vert painting.


    Also more improved AI isnt really going to come just from better consoles/computers. Its more of an issue of humans inability to really create a program that can make/simulate decision making. Even if you had the most advanced super computers for your console your AI would not be vastly improved of what you have in games today.
  • Kwramm
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    Kwramm interpolator
    assuming you have the programmers, there's a lot you could do with some more ram. The specs for current gen consoles are laughable if you compare them to... well, most other gadgets currently on the market
  • ZacD
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    ZacD ngon master
    Well lets compare the specs of what the xbox is and what we will expect for the next one,

    3-core @ 3.2 ghz processor, .5 gig ram shared with gpu, 500 MHz x2 gpu

    next gen should be quad core, probably 2 threads per core, 6 gigs of ram, if shared with gpu wouldn't be too overboard, at least double the clock speed on the gpu. SSD drive and bluray.
  • Ben Apuna
    I hope we don't see studios going under due to the demands of "next gen" development costs like we did when we transitioned from the previous gen to the current one.
  • Kwramm
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    Kwramm interpolator
    I don't hope they go under, but it would be nice if some studios give up on trying to compete on gfx due to the demand and instead focus on innovating on gameplay instead. Imagine if all the resources we used to create awesome gfx could be used somewhere else (ah well, I guess that's like asking hollywood to invest in better scripts? ;) ).

    But you see this trend already in indie gaming since indies usually cannot compete with blockbusters on gfx, so they have to be original in another way.
  • crazyfingers
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    crazyfingers polycounter lvl 10
    I hear that Kwramm, but you can't really buy innovation anyway. That'll come from an indie developer just like minecraft did. It's really encouraging to see the rise in promotion for smaller indie games, through the indie bundles and even on steam and xbox live. Unity and mobile gaming is becoming more and more popular. Really excited to see how the indie scene does in the coming years! With some luck in a year or so i can bug you guys to buy the indie game i'm working on right now ;)
  • Ben Apuna
    It's funny I remember reading EGMs way back in the day when I was a kid and thinking games that only hit high scores in graphics weren't really going to be all that great from a players' perspective.

    Yet here we are today with the big studios still chasing the sexy screenshot or trailer and letting gameplay atrophy to nothing. I really wish the employees making the big decisions about a games' development were the same ones doing the actual creating rather than the ones doing the marketing.

    I'm not advocating we make crappy art or halt progress. As an artist it's very exciting to push the art forward with new tech to greater heights, but shouldn't we be evolving games in more ways than just aiming for more visual realism?

    Ah well, I shouldn't preach too loudly from my soapbox since I'll probably be making clones of games from the 2D stone age for the next couple of years, lol!
  • PolyHertz
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    PolyHertz polycount lvl 666
    ZacD wrote: »
    6 gigs of ram...SSD drive

    I fully expect any upcoming consoles to have at least 4gb of ram total, any less then that would be a huge mistake given how many years into the future they're supposed to last (and the fact that even phones are already up to 1gb). Nintendo might skimp on this with the WiiU though given their history.

    No way consoles will get SSD drives unless prices come down a LOT.
  • Ace-Angel
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    Ace-Angel polycounter lvl 12
    Problem isn't so much as graphical power as is it refined power through the pipeline.

    I personally had enough of all the issues people have with Normal Map, not to consider the the way graphically people have to pull all the tricks in the book.

    To give an example, SM2.0 and SM3.0 cards. Back when X800 and GT6800 where going head to head, I had an X800, and I could Max out most of my games with little to no issue due to me missing out on some fancy shader stuff. SM3.0 made things look better, but I had to dump down my graphical settings considerably, to the point of where they looked worse then a SM2.0 card.

    Basically put, consoles have a nasty habit of jumping on 'next-gen' hardware that is the mushy middle, neither low-end nor high-end enough to test the tech and dev timeset, that developers have to throw money at to get fixed.

    For example, shelled fur worked very well in certain hardware (PS2) but you don't even dare try that on consoles nowadays, unless it's in a boss-fight, in a very small room, just so you can render some extra planers with alpha.

    I hate consoles...not because of what they are, but the because the people behind the tech are a bunch of pillocks. Knowing especially people from Sony, they're going to throw in DX11.1 tech behind it, which no artist will be able to take advantage of because it meets barely the needed overhead.

    Plus, I'll surprised if consoles have more then 1GB of 'normal' RAM. You would think with RAM being the cheapest option, maxing out on that to atleast 3-4GB would be common sense.
  • Brendan
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    Brendan polycounter lvl 8
    Here's an idea. Couldn't sony just 'upgrade' the PS3? A partial rebuild upgrade, take the ram to 1gb vram + 1gm ram from the 256 each it is now. Leave the CPU, motherboard, and anything else that doesn't need changing.

    It might be cheaper than an entirely new console, and 4x the ram for a low price could be a decent incentive over a $700 new console, if it could be made to work.


    I understand that upgradability probably wasn't high on their list when making the ps3, but it'd be one hell of a curveball for the console market.
  • arrangemonk
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    arrangemonk polycounter lvl 15
    teh problem here ist cheap fuckers
    because you gotta add those extra 20 bucks for the extra ram 2 or 3 times to the price you wanted to sell the console, (cheap fuckers manufactor wise)
    and them cheap fuckers on the consumer side will not buy the more expensive model because its to expensive "i just wanna play games man, them 500 bucks for a console is insane... blah blah"

    edit: leaving a console as is with just adding more ram is biting onself in the tail.
    one has to design the pcb so it can have more ram and rewrite some parts of the firmware (which costs money)
    which is about the same amount of work for designing a new console
    without actually having a new console
    and people complain that the new console is technically the same as the old but the games are not compatible anymore
  • ES_139
    StarTrek The Next Generation does have a blu ray box set coming out in 2012 i saw,lol

    ok then.............your alright chrismaddox
  • gsokol
    ErichWK wrote: »
    And better AI, hopefully Direct X11 support. I think it's gonna be a lot of more under the hood stuff then graphical upgrades. It would be nice if Vertex painting became the norm.

    True...but I would imagine that a next gen console without a major upgrade in graphics would be a tough sell to consumers. Every generation up to now has been all about better graphics (with the exception of the Wii).

    ZacD wrote: »
    Well lets compare the specs of what the xbox is and what we will expect for the next one,

    3-core @ 3.2 ghz processor, .5 gig ram shared with gpu, 500 MHz x2 gpu

    next gen should be quad core, probably 2 threads per core, 6 gigs of ram, if shared with gpu wouldn't be too overboard, at least double the clock speed on the gpu. SSD drive and bluray.

    There was this article a little while back on kotaku.


    Also, im quite curious about consoles using ARM architecture. I wonder if thats true, and what kind of advantage that may have? Mobile consoles, maybe?
  • Habboi
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    Habboi sublime tool
    Good. I just hope game developers stick to this level of graphical detail for consoles so we have a nice SMOOTH non framerate dropping experience. I'll always remember the PS3 as "the framerate dropper".
  • doc rob
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    doc rob polycounter lvl 19
    The current gen was nearly a fail for MS and Sony. They lost billions of dollars for the first few years. Nintendo ate their lunch.

    The traditional retail market has been in decline for the past few years, the only growth is in connected products (http://gamasutra.com/view/news/35174/Study_Retail_Game_Revenue_Declines_As_Digital_Sales_Increase_In_US.php).

    Sony and MS won't just put out a more powerful console again, the old way of doing it is dead. Plus, consumers just don't want to spend $600 on a console.

    Added to that, Apple is likely to put the app store on the TV in a really positive way, call it iTV. This will mean MS and Sony can no longer keep the long tail out of the living room. Pricing will need to be more similar to Steam (big games, medium games, variable pricing). There will also be the flood of free to play and $.99 cents games.

    My bet is that the "next gen" will be a Kinect TV product from MS: around $250, guts of a 360 in it, but focused on Live and on-demand TV and Movies. A pre-emptive strike against iTV.
  • Snefer
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    Snefer polycounter lvl 16
    Autocon wrote: »
    The big selling point of the PS4 generation will be tessellation.

    Why would you think that? I think heavier shaders and postprocessing will be the "selling point" nothing people can point out specifically, but I think our rendering quality will increase ALOT, we dont really need that much more polys, its the shader, lighting and postprocessing etc that is lagging behind. Playing through uncharted I barely noticed any polies, so you guys are a good example of that ;) Looking at epics samaritan demo, if you would pull that down to 10% of the polycount you probably wouldnt notice it THAT much, and specially not during gameplay. Hopefully alot of that stuff will be under the hood aswell, so the production time dont increase AGAIN.

    And NO way the new consoles arrives in 2012.
  • eld
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    eld polycounter lvl 18
    doc rob wrote: »
    The current gen was nearly a fail for MS and Sony. They lost billions of dollars for the first few years. Nintendo ate their lunch.

    The traditional retail market has been in decline for the past few years, the only growth is in connected products (http://gamasutra.com/view/news/35174/Study_Retail_Game_Revenue_Declines_As_Digital_Sales_Increase_In_US.php).

    Sony and MS won't just put out a more powerful console again, the old way of doing it is dead. Plus, consumers just don't want to spend $600 on a console.

    I think you missed the fact that sony and ms with their new consoles managed to shift large portions of the pc gaming public towards consoles, they managed to bring over developers to their consoles and have them develop games that just hadn't happened on consoles before that.

    I think it's enough to just look at call of duty or something more niche but yet super popular like elderscrolls to realize what kind of thing that has been achieved with the more "hardcore" console market.

    Sony and microsoft will be releasing new vastly more powerful consoles, heck, sony already has with the vita, which is silly powerful.

    Nintendo will keep aiming for an entirely different market again, one that ms and sony wish to have a piece of, but they know better than to release the firm grip they have of their current one, which is a market that buys many games.
  • Andreas
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    Andreas polycounter lvl 11
    Habboi wrote: »
    Good. I just hope game developers stick to this level of graphical detail for consoles so we have a nice SMOOTH non framerate dropping experience. I'll always remember the PS3 as "the framerate dropper".

    Never had that experience personally, that's what I call my PC :D
  • Del
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    Del polycounter lvl 9
    Snefer wrote: »
    NO way the new consoles arrives in 2012.

    14817_thisthis.jpg
  • chrismaddox3d
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    chrismaddox3d polycounter lvl 17
    http://www.develop-online.net/news/39145/Xbox-720-dev-kits-issued-to-studios-in-December
    Just read However, there is disagreement on the final release date for Microsoft’s next-gen system. Edge claims the console will hit retail in late 2012 – Develop’s sources point to late 2013.
    I agree with what everyone has posted 2013 or later sounds about correct.
    My self i play more PC games than console these days.
  • Joseph Silverman
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    Joseph Silverman polycounter lvl 17
    This is hardly even news, guys. Microsoft and sony leadership were obviously recruited into the illuminati inner circle years ago, and they're naturally going to rush their consoles out so they can cash in before the end in 2012.
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